Today’s Gallop poll has John McCain taking advantage of a post-convention bounce and leading Barack Obama 48% to 45% percent, this with a +or- 3% percent differential.
What do I say? It’s not about the polls, its about how the individual states vote.
Take a look at Yahoo! 08 Election Political Board. They have the most complete information on how each state is currently voting each candidate.
Right now, according to the information gathered from individual state polls, Obama is leading 250 electoral votes to McCain’s 237.
McCain would take battleground states, Ohio & Nevada, while Obama would take battleground states Colorado & New Hampshire. Virginia is a virtual tie, with 8 states and the District of Columbia giving no data.
But let’s put this scenario into place. Let’s give McCain Idaho, Wyoming, South Dakota & West Virginia. Those states are most likely to go to him anyway. Give Obama Hawaii, Maryland, Delaware, Vermont & DC. With all those states in play, when all is said and done, Obama wins the election. Even if McCain wins Virginia, he still comes up short by 5 electoral votes.
The final tally would be Obama 273, McCain 265.
I’m predicting that it’s going to come down to Virginia for the election.
What it all comes down to is, don’t believe the polls! Look at all the facts and then make your final decision!